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2022 Crystal Ball Challenge

2022 Crystal Ball Challenge

First Quarter Update

And the winner of the first quarter is Amy from Onalaska, WI.

The second quarter forecasting challenge is now open for entries and will close at midnight on April 24.

Give Us Your Predictions

How to Participate

  1. Fill out the form (Give Us Your Predictions) as an entry to our 2022 Crystal Ball Challenge.
  2. You will provide your best educated predictions for the following categories: 1-Year US Treasury Yield, 5-Year US Treasury Yield, 10-Year US Treasury Yield, Consumer Price Index, S&P 500 Index, Oil Price - WTI, and Bitcoin (to be used as a tiebreaker).
  3. First place will receive $250 cash/gift card and a QuantyPhi sweater vest.

Rules

  1. Participants must work at a member credit union.
  2. Only one entry per person per contest.
  3. There is no limit to how many employees at each credit union can enter.

Forward Yield Curve

The slope of the yield curve provides clues of what investors are expecting rates to do in the future. Simple math and calculation of breakeven rates will show the curves projections of what is to come.  

A simple example would be a yield curve with the one-year rate at 1.00% and a two-year rate of 2.00%. To breakeven, buyers of the one year will need to recover the 1.00% deficit earned during the first year of the investment and average a 2.00% return for the two-year time frame. This curve would imply that a year later, the one-year rate will be at a 3.00% level.  

Corporate Central shows the forward curve in its Rates section of their website.

View The Forward Curve

For each of the items you will be forecasting we have the one and five year history graphed out for you. Click on each image to see an enlarged, detailed version in a new tab.

1-Year US Treasury Yield

1-year US Treasury Yield 1-year history

1-year US Treasury Yield 5-year history

5-Year US Treasury Yield

5-year US Treasury Yield 1-year history

5-year US Treasury Yield 5-year history

10-Year US Treasury Yield

10-year US Treasury Yield 1-year history

10-year US Treasury Yield 5-year history

Consumer Price Index

Consumer Price Index 1-year history

Consumer Price Index 5-year history

S&P 500 Index

S&P 500 Index 1-year history

S&P 500 Index 5-year history

Oil Price - WTI

Oil Price - WTI 1-year history

Oil Price - WTI 5-year history

Bitcoin (Tiebreaker)

Bitcoin 1-year history

Bitcoin 5-year history