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2023 Crystal Ball Challenge

How to Participate

  1. Fill out the form (Give Us Your Predictions button below) as an entry to our 2023 Crystal Ball Challenge.
  2. You will provide your best educated predictions for where we will be on December 31, 2023 for the following categories: 1-Year US Treasury Yield, 2-Year US Treasury Yield, 3-Year US Treasury Yield, 5-Year US Treasury Yield, and 10-Year US Treasury Yield.
  3. The contestant that comes closest in their predictions will win a $250 gift card, bragging rights, and the prestige of the QuantyPhi championship sweater vest.

Rules

  1. Participants must be an employee of a member credit union.
  2. Only one entry per person per contest.
  3. There is no limit to how many employees at each credit union can enter.

Give Us Your Predictions

Forward Yield Curve

The slope of the yield curve provides clues of what investors are expecting rates to do in the future. Simple math and calculation of breakeven rates will show the curves projections of what is to come.  

A simple example would be a yield curve with the one-year rate at 1.00% and a two-year rate of 2.00%. To breakeven, buyers of the one year will need to recover the 1.00% deficit earned during the first year of the investment and average a 2.00% return for the two-year time frame. This curve would imply that a year later, the one-year rate will be at a 3.00% level.  

Corporate Central shows the forward curve in its Rates section of their website. Click on each image to see an enlarged, detailed version in a new tab.

View The Forward Curve

For each of the items you will be forecasting we have the one and five year history graphed out for you. 

1-Year US Treasury Yield

2-Year US Treasury Yield

3-Year US Treasury Yield

5-Year US Treasury Yield

10-Year US Treasury Yield

US Treasury Yield Curve

 

World Interest Rate Probability Fed Funds Futures

Federal Reserve Open Market Committee DOT Chart